Source: Heisenberg Report — 2026-08-18
Summary
Bank of America's August Global Fund Manager Survey — 203 investors managing $581B, polled August 7–13 — found 38% now name AI hyperscaler capital spending as the most likely trigger of a systemic credit event, the top answer for a second straight month, ahead of private credit (23%), government debt (18%), and leveraged ETFs (11%). Yet the same survey shows investors are barely hedging against that risk: cash fell to 3.5% of assets (near a six-year low) and equity allocation jumped to a net 56% overweight, the most bullish positioning since November 2021.
Key Takeaways
- Survey: 203 fund managers overseeing $581B, conducted Aug. 7–13, 2026 by BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett.
- 38% cite AI hyperscaler capex as the top source of systemic credit risk — the #1 answer for the second consecutive month.
- Despite that fear, 71% don't expect any hyperscaler to cut 2026 capex, up from 61% in July; 32% separately flag an "AI bubble" as the biggest tail risk.
- Cash allocation fell to 3.5% of AUM (one of the lowest readings since 1998) while global equity allocation hit a net 56% overweight — the most bullish since Nov. 2021.
- "Long global semiconductors" is still the most crowded trade, but the share naming it dropped to 53% from July's record 82%.
- Hartnett's team: "Consensus conviction is no macro landing, no Fed hike, no AI capex cut, no DEM sweep, no bears" — and both BofA's cash rule and Bull & Bear Indicator are flashing contrarian sell signals.